Courtesy of Cancillería del Ecuador from Ecuador, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
7.7 million people have left Venezuela as of June 2024, representing over 20% of the country, in the largest wave of displacement since the Syrian refugee crisis. This migration results from years of economic turmoil and political repression, expounded by an election dispute in 2024 still unfolding. The majority have sought refuge in neighboring countries, primarily Colombia, where 2.9 million Venezuelans are being hosted.
Nicolás Maduro became the President of Venezuela in 2013 and has since led the country through periods of political and economic crisis. This has included hyperinflation rising above 130,000% and a GDP shrinking by 71% between 2012 and 2020. Leading up to the 2024 election, Maduro’s government intensified its use of repression tactics, which have only grown since the election itself.
In addition to an economy embroiled in hyperinflation and inequality, the country has fallen victim to massive increases in crime, amounting to a public safety emergency. With a murder rate peaking in 2017 at 89 deaths per 100,000 people and thousands more undocumented or unconfirmed murders, the country has been unsafe to live in for years. Trafficking of both drugs and weapons is rampant, and government officials allegedly have ties to organized criminal groups known for extortion, kidnapping, and robbery, according to senior researcher Anna Ayuso at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs.
The opposition to Maduro, led by former diplomat Edmundo González, claims to have won the election in a landslide. However, Maduro declared his own victory, and has refused to publicize the voting records. In addition, statistical evidence suggests Maduro’s win was highly improbable based on prior polling data, and covertly obtained copies of vote tallies show a higher number of votes for González. This has led several experts, foreign countries, and international observers to recognize the opposition’s claim. González has fled to Spain, evading an arrest order by the Maduro government.
Previously championing María Corina Machado as their 2024 presidential nominee, the opposition was forced to support González after Machado was barred from holding office, supposedly due to Machado endorsing sanctions by the United States against Maduro’s government. The opposition, formed of a thirteen-party coalition, led a campaign based on promising a better economy, lower crime, and an end to political repression. The election was plagued with irregularities, including making it nearly impossible for Venezuelans who migrated to vote. Of the 7.7 million refugees, only 68,000 were registered to vote, due to closed consulates, bureaucratic hurdles, and demands for “unnecessary” paperwork, according to voter advocacy groups.
Political turmoil has greatly increased mass migration. Many Venezuelans were hoping for a change in government and improvement in economic conditions this year, and are now frustrated and looking for better opportunities elsewhere. A survey conducted shortly after the election by Venezuelan polling firm Meganalisis suggested over 600,000 people were planning to leave the country within a month, with 93% of the country not believing Maduro’s claims of winning the election.
Tactics of repression in Venezuela have included arbitrary arrests, torture, and gender-based violence, according to a report from UN Human Rights Council. These political developments, combined with an economy in severe distress, contribute to the massive influx of migration out of the country. Most refugees leave on foot, leading to dangerous treks through jungles and predation by criminals and human traffickers.
Vulnerable refugee families including those with young children, pregnant mothers, and the elderly and disabled, are facing severe poverty in their host communities. Even those able to work have few job opportunities. Many Venezuelans are forced to work informally and are frequently exploited by criminal gangs. This has led to a negative perception of Venezuelans, increasing xenophobia and making it harder to find stability. Despite a willingness to help, host countries are stretched extremely thin aiding so many refugees.
The humanitarian situation for these refugees is dire. With the Colombian bureaucracy congested with requests, refugees wait for months for a work permit, often forcing them to sell belongings and subsist on food from soup kitchens and charity organizations. Many refugees live in overcrowded houses with dozens of other people. Medicine is extremely hard to come by, as are basic hospital supplies, leading to dangerous childbirths and illness.
The situation contrasts sharply with the Venezuelan government’s assessment of the crisis. Maduro and his administration’s officials have long denied that migration outwards was a problem for the country, claiming it was an issue conjured by a “media apparatus.” However, leading up to the election, Maduro began defending Venezuelan migrants, railing against neighboring countries for not treating them properly and asking the refugees to “come back.” Despite this rhetorical shift, few Venezuelans appeared convinced, and migration continued to ramp up following the election.
With Maduro’s government tightening its grip over the country and the opposition largely fleeing for fear of their lives, the exodus of refugees will likely only get worse as Venezuela’s economy continues to crumble, and more Venezuelans seek freedom and security in neighboring countries. The violent subduing of political opposition continues to compound with widespread poverty and hyperinflation, forcing more and more people to leave for their safety.
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