Russia is Dancing on Redlines

Original artwork of writer, Alejandro Vera. Photo courtesy of the New York Times.

On September 9, 2025, 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, violating Poland’s NATO-designated territorial sovereignty and prompting a swift military response. Polish F-16 and Dutch F-35 jets scrambled to intercept the drones, and at least four were shot down, most by the Dutch Air Force. This incident marked the beginning of a two-week series of unprecedented Russian airspace incursions across Eastern Europe.

Escalating Incidents Across Eastern Europe Against NATO & EU Member States

On September 14, 2025, a Russian drone penetrated Romanian airspace near the Ukrainian border, prompting the Romanian Air Force to scramble jets in response. The incursion, though brief, sent a stark signal of Russia’s willingness to test NATO-aligned nations in the Black Sea region.

On September 15, 2025, Poland invoked NATO’s Article 4 and launched the “Eastern Sentry” operation, coordinating with allied air forces to patrol and secure the country’s airspace. NATO’s Article 4 calls member states to consult and determine whether there is sufficient cause to invoke Article 5. 

On September 19, 2025, three Russian MiG-31s violated Estonian airspace, raising alarms across the Baltic region. Despite the evidence, Russia has denied what the EU called a ‘dangerous provocation.’

On September 21, 2025, German jets scrambled after a Russian Il-20M reconnaissance plane entered Baltic Sea airspace, switched off its transponders, and ignored requests to make contact. While no conflict occurred, this is the latest in a list of persistent Russian aerial provocations near and across NATO borders and partners. This list will likely expand in the near future.

Testing NATO

The recent Russian airspace violations in Poland and Estonia are not random; they are a calculated signal, a test of readiness, and a warning. Both Poland and Romania, the only European countries hosting Aegis Ashore missile defense systems (with other Aegis installations located in Turkey and the Mediterranean), were targeted, suggesting that these incursions were intended to probe NATO’s integrated defensive capabilities. By testing airspace specifically guarded by advanced missile defense infrastructure, Russia can gather critical data on response times, operational readiness, and coordination between national forces and NATO allies.

At best, these incursions function as reconnaissance, providing Moscow with actionable intelligence on NATO’s strengths and limitations in real operational conditions. At worst, they may be preliminary signals of potential offensive operations, a form of low-intensity testing that precedes larger attacks. History shows this is a sound military strategy, especially when the aggressor is weaker: during repeated attacks on Israel’s Iron Dome system from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, the system was stressed and eventually demonstrated vulnerabilities under sustained pressure; even advanced defense systems can be systematically probed and potentially overcome. Even if Russia has zero intentions of real military aggression against NATO partners, these incursions measure the Alliance’s combat potential.  

The pattern of these incursions clearly demonstrates intent. Despite its three-year struggle to conquer Ukraine, Russia still remains the world’s second, if not third, most formidable army; as such, these are not errors or accidental border crossings; they are calculated aerial exercises in testing, signaling, and intelligence gathering. Recognizing the calculated nature of these operations is critical for understanding the current threat against the European theater.

European Ostpolitik: The Case for a Military Pivot

Russia’s behavior in the last two weeks, if not the last three years, should be a wake-up call for the European Union to pursue a military Ostpolitik. A security framework in Europe, where the EU can act independently and retaliate credibly, without the need for U.S. support, could stabilize the continent and deter Russian aggression. To secure peace and stability, Europe must invest in credible deterrence, strengthen collective defense, and prepare to act independently if necessary. Conventional Ostpolitik has failed to prevent war, and the current situation demonstrates the dangers of an unprepared Europe. A strategy of military Ostpolitik should seek to balance the European Union and Russia, creating bipolar stability. The U.S. is disinterested, if not aggressive, and despite the hopeful expectations for Nord Stream rapprochement, Russia is now violating EU and NATO sovereignty while it wages a war on the European continent. The choice is clear: either Europe becomes a capable military actor, or it risks ceding ground to an emboldened aggressor.

Of course, rearming Europe carries risks. Russia may interpret such preparations as aggressive, potentially escalating tensions. However, an unarmed Europe risks far worse: strategic vulnerability and the possibility of becoming Russia’s Lebensraum.