Trump’s Approval Rating Sinks as Midterms Become Increasingly Competitive

American flags near the Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C. Original public domain image from Flickr. Retrieved from Rawpixel.

President Donald Trump is currently facing historically low approval ratings, with a Reuters poll showing that only 32% of Americans support him. This surpasses his previous lowest approval rating, which was during his first term in office, after the Jan. 6th attack on the Capitol. This low approval rating stems from the Iran War, which has significantly affected the economy by driving gas prices higher domestically, as well as his handling of immigration and affordability.

Trump’s war against Iran has been prominent in the media since its start in February  2026. Trump had previously promised that the war would be over in four to five weeks at the start, but continues to say that it will be a few days to a few weeks until it ends. Domestically, there is a significant lack of support for the war, with only 31% of Americans supporting military action against Iran as of Aug. 24, 2026.

The conflict has led to massive increases in oil prices, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on shipping prevent oil from flowing out of the Persian Gulf into the global market. This has caused fuel prices in the United States to rise significantly, up 40% since the beginning of the war with Iran, putting significant strain on Americans, who are already facing an increased cost of living.

President Trump’s approval on immigration has also faced a sharp rebuttal from a majority of the nation. His approval on the subject has only 37% support, with support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s enforcement of immigration laws resting at 33%. Many say the president has gone too far in the enforcement of his immigration policy, with many Americans having strong reactions to ICE shootings and their related deaths.

With Trump’s approval on the economy and immigration shrinking, two areas in which he previously had majority support, this signals that many Americans are opposed to the President’s policies. This should be worrisome for Republicans going into the midterm elections, as the President’s party typically faces losses in both houses of Congress during midterm years.

This proves to be an uphill battle for Trump and his fellow Republicans, as they are expected to face typical headwinds of incumbent loss of support during the midterms, combined with their historic unpopularity due to economic, foreign, and immigration policies. Republicans already hold a slim majority in the House, with Republicans holding 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, with one independent who caucuses with Republicans.

President Trump’s low approval rating has led to sinking polling numbers for Republican candidates across the country, most notably in prominent and increasingly pivotal Senate races. States that have not been swing states for significant amounts of time, such as Texas and Kansas, have come into play for Democratic candidates.

These states are crucial to Republicans continuing to hold on to the Senate, with the current allotment of seats being Republicans with 53 and the Democratic Party with 47. Any slip in support from states that are not typically swing states risks increasing the chances of Republicans losing their hold on the Senate, as well as significantly affecting their chances of attaining the majority in the Senate in future elections.

What may be Democrats’ biggest hope in this year’s midterm elections is to flip a Senate seat in Texas. Texas’ Senate race is between Democratic candidate James Talarico, a state Representative, and Republican Ken Paxton, who currently serves as the Texas Attorney General. Talarico has consistently been ahead in the polls, leading Paxton by six points in a Siena College poll published on Oct. 3, 2026.

The governor’s race has also become increasingly close, with Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa building momentum, trailing just behind incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott in the most recent polls. The last time any Democrat won a statewide race in Texas was in 1994.

Another long-coveted Senate seat by Democrats has been Maine’s Susan Collins, who has held her seat since 1997. Collins has long defied national trends and expectations, surviving the blue wave years of 2008 and 2020, although there was a 10-point drop in her margin of victory between the two elections. Polls in Maine have put the two candidates neck and neck, with Collins (R) trailing by two points behind Troy Jackson (D) in an InsiderAdvantage poll published on Oct. 16, 2026.

Former Democratic Governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper has mounted a Senate election campaign, hoping that his popularity as governor in the state would bring him to victory in a federal election. North Carolina typically falls to the Democrats in state-level elections, and Republicans in federal-level elections. In a recently published Harper Polling poll, Cooper holds a strong ten-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley. Recently, GOP donors have pulled back from North Carolina, instead pouring their money into newly vulnerable elections, such as the Senate election in Kansas.

In the Michigan Senate race, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holds a five-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers, in a state which went to President Trump in 2016 and 2024, and former President Biden in 2020. Michigan is an essential swing state for both Republicans and Democrats, aiding both in the Electoral College for every presidential election victory since the 2008 election.

For Ohio’s Senate race, Democrats recruited former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) to face off against Jon Husted (R), who filled JD Vance’s Senate seat once Vance became Vice President. Brown holds a three-point lead over Husted, in a state which Trump won in all three of his presidential elections since 2016.

Through September and early October, Democratic or independent candidates have made headway in Great Plains Senate races which are typically ruby-red, with all three having voted for Trump three times. In Nebraska, the least likely of the states to flip, Senator Pete Ricketts, the Republican candidate, is up only five points to independent candidate Dan Osborn. For comparison, in the 2024 presidential election, Trump carried the state by 20 points.

In neighboring Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson is up two points to Democratic candidate Josh Turek, where Trump won by 13 points. Shifting south to Kansas, there is a tie in polling, with both Republican Roger Marshall and Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton at 45%, although there is a third-party candidate polling at three percent. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won the state by 16 points. This shift has worried Republicans, with Trump campaigning for Ricketts in Nebraska to help boost his campaign. The President also promised to campaign in Kansas for Senator Marshall.

Current Senate polls highlight a significant rebuttal of Trump and his politics, with his unpopularity seemingly bleeding down into lower-level races. With seats up for grabs that are usually safe for Republican candidates, this should be a warning sign for Republicans that Americans are not resonating with their policy and their future policy may need to be adjusted.

This election will have significant impacts on the second half of Trump’s term, determining whether he can continue to implement his policies or whether he would face a major roadblock. These impacts will last far longer than his term, which is expected to end in January 2029, with these Senate seats being held for six years, potentially giving Democrats a solid hold on the Senate for years to come.