The Presidential Debates - Image’s Influence, and What to Expect in An Uncertain Election

The United States Senate - Office of Senator Kamala Harris, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Presidential debates: one of the most iconic parts of the election year, and oftentimes the make or-break moment for candidates seeking to lead the most powerful office in the world. Although sometimes stale and underwatched, presidential debates have undoubtedly changed the future of the United States, for better or for worse.

As the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump approaches, the question arises, how will today’s debates influence the election, and what should we expect from the new Democratic candidate and the former Republican President.

While debates are now considered to be largely unimportant in swinging the vote, they were previously critical for public perception. Today, television debate watchers tend to be well-informed and politically engaged parties, who have likely made up their minds about what name they will be checking off at the ballot box. Yet, America would be without one of its most iconic presidents, President John F. Kennedy, who would lead the way for some of the most significant legislative reform ever in the Civil Rights bills, if not for a single debate. In the first televised presidential debate, JFK shined while Nixon sweated under the lights.

The visual difference between the two candidates was so stark that, after the debate, radio listeners were more likely to vote for Nixon, and television viewers were more likely to vote for Kennedy. Kennedy had arrived at the studio hours ahead of time to prep and adjust the thermostat, while Nixon struggled to keep his eyes off a clock on the wall, leading to viewers thinking he was shifty. As the history books show, Kennedy, the massive underdog, would go on to win the popular vote by only 0.2 percentage points, and the election along with it.

Clearly, image mattered. The question today is, does it still matter? The social media age has been blamed for the development of extreme obsession with image, both in self and in others, so certainly image should still matter in presidential debates. Image was certainly linked to President Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential election after his disastrous performance against former President Trump on June 27, 2024. In that debate, Biden’s voice was weakened by a recent illness, and his age took the stage over his accomplishments as president.

Democrats in the House and the Senate publicly called for Biden to step down, uproar splashed across news headlines, and the debate served as the straw that broke the camel’s back in the concern over Biden’s candidacy due to his age. In a move unseen since President Lyndon B. Johnson, President Biden tweeted out on X that he would not be continuing onwards in the race. Without that debate, America would not have Vice President Kamala Harris as a candidate for the presidency at all, let alone the candidate now leading in the national polls. Although Trump is now the elder in the race, there remains doubt over whether or not viewers care at all about how he will appear against Harris, as Trump has not left the public’s mind since 2016.

The public is well aware of Trump’s perception, and the separation of image is stark between him and Harris. Trump has already gone on the attack ahead of the scheduled September 10, 2024 debate on ABC News, comparing Harris to Biden, stating “She’s actually not as smart as he is. I don’t think he’s very smart either, by the way. I’m not a big fan of his brain.” And that is what viewers should expect from the debate; personal attacks fired from both sides. The Democrats have spent their convention as expected, scorching Trump and his vice presidential pick Senator JD Vance for their rhetoric attacking childless women and families, veterans, and abortion rights. 

Trump will certainly not rise above these attacks when he meets Harris on that debate stage, as he has gone viral for attacking Harris’ racial identity, looks, as well as her running-mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s status as a veteran. Both candidates have also gone back and forth about debate platforms, with Trump in particular continuing to suggest he might back out of their September 10th bout because it is set to take place on ABC. 

There remains concern over how each platform’s moderators will influence how each candidate will be perceived, suggesting that, although voters might have their minds made up, debates and where they take place do still pack some electoral outcome influence. In the infamous Biden v. Trump debate the moderators seemed to fade into the background, but Trump remains doubtful that that will be the same with a much fresher Harris at the opposite podium. 

As noted, oftentimes viewers of debates have historically been informed voters, sitting in front of their family TV set, judging candidates on their body language and quips. Now, the average American spends approximately seven hours a day looking at screens that display news  and developments within milliseconds. Anyone and everyone who consumes social media or even a plain news source is likely to come into contact with the debate between Harris v. Trump. Such interactions will likely widen the gap of perception between the two candidates, as they did in 2016.

Who wins could once again come to hinge on a debate, as it did with President Kennedy and as it did with President Biden. Trump appears to believe strongly that Harris’ rise will end soon, asserting “The honeymoon period’s going to end.” The debate could either deliver that end, or it could solidify Harris’ unorthodox path to the Oval Office. Image might be the deciding factor in what voters do at the ballot box, even with debates being credited with less influence than in the election years that came before.