Japan Faces Political Earthquake as Ruling Party Loses Majority for First Time Since 2009

Picture of Shigeru Ishiba announcing his resignation as Prime Minister of Japan. Author: Japan Cabinet Public Affairs Office.

On October 27, 2024, Japanese voters elected their representatives in the 465-member House of Representatives, the lower chamber of parliament. In a political landscape known for its stability, the results were a stunning upset for the incumbent government.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a political powerhouse that shaped postwar Japan, suffered a significant blow. It lost its majority in the lower house of parliament, with several of its Cabinet ministers, including the current Minister of Justice Hideki Makihara and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Yasuhiro Ozato, losing their seats. Former Minister of Education Hakubun Shimomura and former Olympic minister Tamayo Marukawa also lost their seats. 

In addition, the Buddhist-backed Komeito, which formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats for over a quarter century, also lost seats and failed to retain a majority. The newly elected leader of Komeito, veteran Keiichi Ishii, who was elected in September 2024, lost his seat.

The election brought substantial electoral success for the opposition. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ), the main opposition party, increased its seats from 96 to 148. Minority parties on the far left and far right also gained representation.

In response to the results, current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that he intends to remain Prime Minister. However, he acknowledged voters' frustration and vowed to push for political reform, enact policies to improve the economy and regain the people's trust in the party. While Mr. Ishiba blamed the party's results on a political finance scandal, experts say voters' grievances were more extensive than that. 

Kunihiko Miyake, a former diplomat and now special adviser at the Canon Institute for Global Studies in Tokyo, said the main reasons for the Liberal Democrats' disastrous results were 30 years of economic stagnation and a deterioration in living standards, especially for young people.

While the Liberal Democrats were able to contain voter dissatisfaction despite flat wages, labor shortages, and a rapidly aging population for many years, Ishiba's inability to "clean house" after a recent political finance scandal put the party "on notice."

Jiro Yamaguchi, a political scientist at Hosei University, Tokyo, said that while governments led by the Liberal Democratic Party appeared stable, the party often postponed fundamental policy changes due to a fear of voter backlash. This resulted in severe problems in the Japanese economy and society.

Yamaguchi claimed that while more party representation could signify political health, the rise of minor parties with extreme political positions could be dangerous for the nation's democracy. Besides, having eight minor parties winning seats is hardly a testament to a unified vision for the country.

Following the election, Prime Minister Ishiba announced his intention to maintain his current coalition with Komeito and ruled out an immediate partnership with the opposition. However, Ishiba's willingness to engage with other political parties and explore potential areas for collaboration offers a glimmer of hope for future governance.

One potential political party with which Prime Minister Ishiba could collaborate is the Democratic Party of the People (DPFP), which advocates for lower taxes and measures to increase net income.

The party head, Yuichiro Tamaki, said he is open to a "partial alliance" with the LDP rather than joining forces with the ruling and opposition parties. Tamaki also emphasized that in a hung parliament, where no political party holds a majority, the Liberal Democrats can no longer advance their policies and must listen to those who voted for the opposition.

Prime Minister Ishiba could have partnered with the conservative Japan Innovation Party. However, Party leader Nobuyuki Baba immediately shot down the idea.

The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democrats, could also form a government with the Democratic Party of the People and the Japan Innovation Party. After the election, Yoshihiko Noda, the head of the Constitutional Democratic Party, intensified his efforts to gain cross-party support for his bid to become Japan's next prime minister.

While the head of the Japan Innovation Party did not immediately give an answer as to whether or not he would support Noda's bid to become the next prime minister, the leader of the Japan Communist Party, Tomoko Tamura, was positive. The leader of the Democratic Party for the People rejected talks with the Constitutional Democrats.

Even if the CDPJ can build this united government, the three political parties would disagree in significant policy areas, such as nuclear energy.

As Japan becomes mired in domestic political affairs, it could undermine its role as a bulwark against rising aggression from North Korea and China. While the future government is unlikely to reverse the LDP's current policies, such as the plan to increase the defense budget, restore relations with South Korea, and stand firm against Russia's aggression in Ukraine, domestic political instability could weaken Japan's international profile.