Beyond Iran, Two Neighbors Struggle to Reconcile

Man Walks Through Wreckage in Kabul. Courtesy of the International Crisis Group.

While most around the world have been focused on the recent conflagration in Iran, another conflict has exploded further East. On February 27, 2026, citing concerns over Afghanistan’s failure to address recent terrorist attacks, Pakistan bombed 22 military installations in Kabul, killing between 250–400 people and wounding hundreds more. 

Afghanistan hasn’t taken this sitting down: in a now-deleted post on X, Afghanistani minister Zabihullah Mujahid claimed “extensive retaliatory operations” had been undertaken against Pakistan. A week later, fighting broke out between the neighboring nations along the frontier Khost region. As the tension began to spread, Pakistani defense minister Khawaja Asif described the situation as an “all-out war.” After weeks of back-and-forth strikes between the two nations, both sides agreed to a truce on March 19th to celebrate Eid-al-Fitr, a shared holiday marking the end of Ramadan. 

While one might be inclined to assume that the disputes will wind down as the two countries work to find a permanent solution, current enmity comes on the tail of a two-year conflict resolved by Turkey and Qatar last October. Given economic instability and longstanding enmity between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the recent Eid ceasefire appears as fickle as the last one.

At the forefront of the war is Afghanistan’s economic situation. After taking control in 2021, the Taliban have struggled to effectively govern, with over half the country dependent on humanitarian assistance, and unsteady economic growth following the regime change. While the Taliban have, for the most part, succeeded in routing guerrilla forces from the old regime, their dependence on shipments of goods from Iran has squeezed growth as Iran has faltered & global trade has ground to a halt. Given Afghanistan is flanked by Iran on one side and Pakistan on the other, losing access to Iran means the country is almost completely landlocked. Commercial instability reduces Afghanistan’s leverage when negotiating; an Afghanistan incapable of consistent diplomacy with regional powers may lead to more misunderstandings with Pakistan, which in turn will lead to more strife. 

While not at risk of collapse, recent strains on the Pakistani economy make the prospect of intensive war unappetizing. Given the country imports around 90% of its oil from Gulf nations, it has struggled to cope with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to raising prices at the pump by over 50%, the Pakistani government has announced a 4-day work week, and has taken on unsustainable amounts of debt to keep the economy afloat. As the war in Iran drags on and existing reserves are depleted, Pakistan’s overreliance on Gulf oil could bring the country to its knees. Although the country has begun wading into negotiations over the Iran war and received license from Iran to send twenty ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the oil Pakistan relies on remains stuck and the economy frozen. While Pakistan may lose willingness for war during an energy crisis, any weakness on the side of Pakistan could give decentralized Afghani terrorist groups an opening to strike.

Beneath material concerns about current economic growth lies a border dispute  – what former president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai described as a “line of hatred that raised a wall between two brothers.” Skirmishes remain centered around the Durand line, a contested section of the border between the two neighbors. Drawn by the British in 1893, the line separates the Pashtuns, a South Asian ethnic minority making up around 40% of Afghanistan and 20% of Pakistan. Since at least the 1960s, hardline factions in Afghanistan have claimed Pashtun-majority parts of Pakistan as their own, radicalizing myriad splinter groups. As a result, Pakistan has been tormented by hundreds of terrorist attacks from terrorist groups sourced in Afghanistan, the most recent of which killed 31 Pakistanis in prayer. Pakistani frustration over these unabated threats to their sovereignty has lingered for decades, and is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. 

Indeed, Pakistan has more than retaliated in kind: by funding the Taliban when they were waging war against the US-backed regime, Pakistan has consistently fomented instability in Afghanistan. Pakistan has carried out multiple airstrikes with impunity, killing over 1,000 this year alone. Additionally, as Pakistan’s economic growth has continued to outpace war-riddled Afghanistan, firefights have become lopsided: with a military budget around sixty times larger than Afghanistan’s, Pakistan maintains overwhelming superiority in naval, aerial, and terrestrial combat. Such a long history of war alongside shifting power dynamics makes the idea of reconciliation seem out of reach, thus perpetuating further conflict.

Pakistan’s problems with Afghanistan are magnified by Indian support for the Taliban regime. Although India defers to international allies in not formally recognizing Taliban rule in Afghanistan, they have reestablished an embassy in Kabul and maintained informal ties with the new regime. After Pakistan’s February 27th airstrike, India sent over 2.5 tons of medical supplies, leading Pakistani defense minister Khawaja Asif to describe Afghanistan as “India’s proxy.” Pakistan and India are archrivals: they have warred four times since their partition in 1947 by the British, and skirmished even more than Afghanistan and Pakistan. Given India and Pakistan’s longstanding disputes, increased Indian support for Afghanistan would likely further atomize relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. 

As the war in Iran rages on, it’s easy to believe others will take a pause, that the economic shock caused by oil prices will prevent others from causing further issues. However, tensions around the Durand line are the product of disagreements long preceding the Iran war. If the war escalates even further, the US may be obligated to step in on the side of Pakistan to counter China and India’s influence in the region. American intervention in yet another war would stretch strained military production even thinner, diminishing American leverage in the Iran war. Regardless of foreign interference, the on-again, off-again crisis between Afghanistan and Pakistan is a solemn example of how much easier it is to burn bridges than to build them.