100,000 over 100: Japan’s new population milestone

On September 15, 2026, Japan reached a new population milestone: more than 100,000 of its population is over 100 years old. Japan, which has become known for its high life expectancy, recently published a report celebrating this historic milestone. The Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare recorded a total of 107,677 centenarians, an increase of nearly 8,000 people compared to the previous year. A majority of the centenarians are women, with a distribution of 94,298 women and 13,379 men. One established explanation for this distribution is that many men of that generation had died in World War II, were avid smokers, or were more likely to be involved in industry-intensive labour that led to long-term health complications such as elevated risk of heart diseases or strokes. In addition, scientists attribute Japan’s high life expectancy, which is the 4th highest in the world at an average of 85.15 years, to a healthy lifestyle and an advanced healthcare system. According to research by the World Economic Forum, in recent years, Japan has seen a rapidly increasing demand for improvements in healthcare, nursing, and lifestyle innovations, with the “longevity economy” projected to expand to 115 trillion Japanese yen ($780 billion) by 2040. In 2025, the Japanese government increased its budget for care technology, providing private companies with increased funding to develop “care robots”—robots that can assist senior citizens with daily household tasks and potentially function as companions. With the new age milestone, Japan’s emphasis on developing effective lifestyle technology to address elder care has become more important than ever. 

However, such a milestone also raises concerns regarding Japan’s future. In early 2026, Japan’s recorded fertility rate was 1.39, an increase from 2025 but still below the recommended replacement rate of 2.1. Japan also has the highest old age dependency ratio in the world at 54.90, which is the number of individuals aged 65 or older per 100 people of working age (ages 20-64). A high old age dependency can result in reduced economic growth and labour shortages, as well as increased strain on public spending and social services. While Japan’s government has attempted to implement various pro-natalist policies, such as subsidies, free early education, and matchmaking programs, these programs have found varying levels of success. 

Japan’s shrinking birth rate can also be attributed to a wider societal resistance of sorts that is seemingly influencing many young people in the nation. Studies have shown that the average age of marriage has gone up over the years as many young people prioritize their careers over having children. Furthermore, expensive childcare costs and a demanding corporate culture disincentivize many from having children. Underlying societal stigma decreases employment rates by around 3.5% for women who have children, resulting in mothers sticking to domestic and care work. Many women also face gender-based wage gaps in comparison to their male counterparts; with research stating that some have a wage penalty of 5.4% per child. Japan has been recorded to have the highest caregiving labour gap between mothers and fathers among the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, European Union), with mothers shouldering most of the household work. As such, many young women in Japan choose to focus on their careers rather than the prospect of childbirth. 

Additionally, Japan’s rapidly aging population has placed increasing economic and tax pressure on a shrinking labour force (aged 15-64). The country has already seen labour shortages in sectors such as education, construction, and nursing, with enterprises at risk of closing down due to a lack of successors. Particularly, nursing and elderly care sections face an unprecedented shortage as the number of elderly in Japan continue to grow. Many researchers believe that one way to target Japan’s shrinking labour force is to increasingly integrate foreign workers. However, Japan has recently ushered in a new wave of policies that make permanent residence and tourism for foreigners more difficult, such as increasing visa and residency application fees. In part, these new policies can be attributed to current Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s move towards nationalism and conservatism, which includes cracking down on immigration and tourism. These developments make it more complicated for foreigners to pursue work opportunities in Japan, shrinking the country’s already low foreign population. 

While Japan’s new record of centenarians is a testament to the country's highly advanced healthcare system and lifestyle habits, its declining birth rate and rapidly aging population pose a looming challenge for policymakers. Ultimately, the future of Japan’s economy and population distribution remains uncertain as the government continues its search for effective means to address depopulation.